Florida Derby Handicapping Picks
Horse racing gamblers are you looking for 2024 Florida Derby Free Pick & Handicapping Odds…plus some predictions? Need some advice on who to take? The 2024 (G1) Florida Derby is set for March 30 at Gulfstream Park in Hallandale Beach, FL. Here’s a preview of our top contenders.
Florida Derby Preview
- Race: Florida Derby
- Purse: $1 million
- Track: Gulfstream Park
- Date: March 30
- Post Time: 6:42 PM (ET)
- Live: Florida Derby Odds: Click Here
Before we can give you our expert 2024 Florida Derby free pick, we have to break down the entries! In fact, we’d love to hear from you after you’ve given this post a read to see if you see an angle that we don’t!
2024 Florida Derby Handicapping
Qualifying for the 2024 Kentucky Derby has moved into the home stretch, and this weekend offers up two races that will award Derby points on a 100-50-25-15-10 scale, including the (G1) Florida Derby from Gulfstream Park.
The Florida Derby is open to horses age three and is run at a distance of 1 1/8 miles on the Gulfstream dirt track. Of the 11 entries set to go to the gate, two are currently in the leaderboard top 20 – the cutoff point to gain a start the Derby – with one other sitting just outside in spot #21.
Odds listed here are provided by the Gulfstream Park track oddsmaker.
2024 Florida Derby Free Pick & Handicapping: Fierceness Race Odds: 8-5
Sitting at #13 on the Derby leaderboard, Fierceness will likely need to add to his current tally of 36 points to make the gate on the first Saturday of May.
The defending Breeders’ Cup Juvenile champ, he’s the only horse in the field to record a triple-digit Brisnet speed figure, and he’s done so twice. Following the BC, he was off for three months and made his 2024 debut in the (G3) Holy Bull Stakes at Gulfstream in February.
After a bit of a rough start, he ended up third, 3 1/2 lengths behind Hades, who he’ll meet here again.
2024 Louisiana Derby Free Pick & Handicapping: Conquest Warrior Race Odds: 3-1
The lightly raced Conquest Warrior will make just his fourth lifetime start, and first at any kind of stakes level.
He was impressive last out in taking an optional claiming event by five lengths on the Gulfstream Park dirt and at this same 1 1/8 miles distance. He’s taking a big step up in class here, and will need to improve a bit speed-wise to run with the best of these.
Hades Race Odds: 7-2
Currently 21st on the Derby points list, Hades comes in off the win in the Holy Bull, where he not only beat Fierceness, he also finished two lengths in front of Domestic Product, who next out went on to win the (G3) Tampa Bay Derby.
The Holy Bull was his third consecutive win in three lifetime starts, and in the last two of those he was able to essentially take the field wire-to-wire. He may get some company up front here, but expect him to be up on the pace trying to stretch his speed out over 1/16th of a mile further than he’s gone so far.
Le Dom Bro Race Odds: 15-1
If you toss his start three back on a muddy Aqueduct track in the (G2) Remsen Stakes, Le Dom Bro has never been worse than second in his five other starts, albeit with only one win.
Last out in the (G2) Fountain Of Youth Stakes at Gulfstream, he produced yet another runner-up finish, less than two lengths back of the highly regarded Dornoch, who has already punched his ticket to the Derby.
A repeat of that effort gives him a good chance to get a piece of it here at big odds.
Here’s My 2024 Florida Derby Free Pick.
Granted that he was making his first start since the Breeders’ Cup and may not have been 100% race ready, but as the 1-5 favourite Fierceness should have walked away with the Holy Bull. He had every chance to take command at the top of the lane and couldn’t do it, and in my mind his effort was rather dull.
Not all horses move forward to the same degree from age two to three, and despite his championship back class, I’ll try and beat him. To that end I’m going with the one that won the Holy Bull in Hades. In contrast to Fierceness, I thought he ran a very good race, doing the dirty work up front and not backing down when the favourite looked him in the eye at the top of the stretch.
Four runner-up finishes in four Gulfstream Park starts gives me reason enough to use long shot Le Dom Bro underneath in the exacta.
Full Field: 2024 Florida Derby Odds
By post position
- #1 – Frankie’s Empire 12-1
- #2 – Hades 7-2
- #3 – Bail Us Out 15-1
- #4 – Grand Mo the First 15-1
- #5 – Real Macho 20-1
- #6 – Le Dom Bro 15-1
- #7 – Catalytic 20-1
- #8 – Seminole Chief 30-1
- #9 – Conquest Warrior 3-1
- #10 – Fierceness 8-5
- #11 – Iris’s Dream 30-1
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